How To Start Trading The Forex Market? (Part 8)

HOW TO predict the Future ?

by studying the Past (Technical Analysis):

1) The best traders don’t discount one or the other but understand that having an understanding how the fundamentals influence market sentiment gives him/her an edge over those traders who don’t.

2) In my opinion, TECHNICAL analysis is the easiest and most accurate way of trading the FOREX market.

3) “The number’s don’t lie” – all available information and its impact on the market, are already reflected in a currency’s price.

4) Prices move in trends – the foreign exchange market is mostly composed of trends and therefore a place where technical analysis can be very effective.

5) History repeats itself – over time, certain chart patterns become consistent, predictable and very reliable. The question is SEEING them.

PRICES MOVE IN TRENDS

The traders who don’t believe this obviously have no need to implement a trading methodology on technical analysis. But, research has shown that those who trade “with the trend”, greatly improve their changes of making a profitable trade.

Finding the prevailing trend will help you become aware of the overall market direction and offer you better visibility,especially when shorter-term movements tend to clutter the picture.

HOW does technical analysis help to determine what the trend is and HOW to trade with then trend versus against it?

Even though, you learn you how to use and read various technical indicators to identify a long- term trend, spot predictable chart patters and use certain rules to enter and exit a high-probability trade, and even though a ll this involves sound logic, parameters, methods, formulas, data, and research, these technical indicators, by themselves, are not the Holy Grail of FOREX trading.

It takes discipline and emotional control to stick with trading following through the inevitable market ups and downs. Keep in mind, good technical traders expect ups and downs.

Which technical indicators are the BEST?

NONE – technical indicators should simply be components of your overall customized, personalized trading system, and not a stand alone system.
The objectives as a FOREX Technical Trader are:

1) To figure out the price action of the currency pair. Price is the main concern. If the EUR/USD is at 1.2224 and goes to 1.2020, 1.1980, 1.1940- the market is in a down trend.

Despite what every technical indicator might predict, if the trend is down, stay with the trend. Indicators showing where price will go next or what it should be doing are useless.

A trader should only be concerned with what the market is doing, not what the market might do. The price tells you what the market is doing.

2) Always remember that technical indicators are only giving you confirmations based on what the market is telling you. So listen to the market and let it tell you which method, strategy or techniques you should use.

How To Start Trading The Forex Market? (Part 7)

HOW DO Economic Events impact Global Currencies:

When I asked several traders about their thoughts about using fundamental analysis as a part of their trading decisions, I have received two opposite responses.

RESPONSE of Trader A

Fundamentals that you read about are typically useless as the market has already discounted the price. I am looking at (1) the long term trend, (2) the current chart pattern and (3) identifying a good entry point to buy or to sell.

RESPONSE of Trader B

I almost always trade on a market view. I don’t trade simply on technical information alone. I use technical analysis and it is terrific, but I can’t initiate or hold a position unless I understand why the market should move.

There is a great deal of hype attached to technical analysis by some technicians who claim that it predicts the future.

Technical analysis tracks the past; it does not predict the future. You have to use your own intelligence to draw conclusions about what the past activity of some traders say about the future activity of other traders.

For me, technical analysis is like a thermometer.

Fundamentalists who say they are not going to pay any attention to the charts are like a doctor who says he’s not going to take a patient’s temperature. If you want to be a successful trader in the market, you always want to know where the market is- up ñ down- trending or choppy .You want to know everything you can about the market to give you an edge.

Technical analysis reflects the vote of the entire marketplace and, therefore, does pick up unusual behavior. By definition, anything that creates a new chart pattern is something unusual.

It is very important to study the details of price action to see and observe. Studying the charts is absolutely crucial and alerts to existing disequilibrium and potential changes.

For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick.

The release of economic & inflation indicators (i.e., consumer spending, employment cost index, government spending, producer price index, etc.), political actors, government policy or an individual event can set the market in a frenzy. These have to be considered when making the decision ì to trade or not to trade.î

Technical analysis, is a way of using historical price data in different ways to predict the future price of a currency pair.

Fundamental analysis is a very effective way to forecast economic conditions, but not necessarily exact market prices, and you SHOULD trade in agreement with the supporting technical indicators.

Foreign exchange traders put the most emphasis on technical analysis, because traders around the world use similar charts and tools in predicting market trends.

The reason the FOREX market can be so predictable some times is that if the majority are using the same graph for determining patterns and trends, then it is highly likely that they will act in a similar manner.

So several thousand traders who have all charted the same resistance line, for example, will most likely either set their trades and direction conform to that line.

When fundamental data is made available to the public there is a reaction from investors and speculators.

Information in the form of news and economic indicators is more vague than that of technical indicators. There is a lot of gray area in this type of analysis. The market will ultimately react to how people think the economic data compares to the current market situation.

Economic indicators usually reveal information that “Should cause a currency to go up in price” or “May cause a currency to go down”. The words ìSHOULDî & ìMAYî in the quotes above reveal the ambiguity of the fundamental data.

Here is an example of what analyzing fundamental data is like. Let’s suppose there are six economic indicators (there are a lot more).

Let’s call our six indicators 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Now we wait for the data from our indicators to be published in a financial magazine or at an online source. We get the readings for our economic data for the EURO as following:

Indicator 1: is in a range where the Euro may go up
Indicator 2: is in a range where the Euro should go up
Indicator 3: is in a range where the Euro could go down
Indicator 4: is in a range where the Euro usually goes down
Indicator 5: is in a range where the Euro could go up
Indicator 6: is in a range where the Euro may go down

By looking at the above indicators, you don’t know what the Euro is going to do. Furthermore, currencies are always traded in pairs. So you would have to get the fundamental data for another currency pair and compare it with the EURO. I think you can image that this is not a simple task.

I do not want to discourage you away from fundamental data. The best way to learn is to learn about one piece of economic data at a time. Eventually you will build a puzzle from all of the fundamental and technical data and make more informed trading decisions.

How To Start Trading The Forex Market? (Part 6)

HOW TO READ FOREX PRICE CHARTS?

Forex Price Charts, what DO they mean and HOW to use them?

Important numerous facts as discipline, trading rules, not being greedy etc., but one of the most important things is:

LEARN to read the charts as Charts represent the lifeblood of the market.

I admit that reading charts, and interpreting patterns, are more an art than a skill. Base and apply your entry and exit decisions on YOUR OWN combined methods of technical and fundamental analysis.

FOREX charts, are easier to interpret and to use. They reflect a slower moving, stable economy of a country, compared to the stock market, with its daily drama of company reports, Wall Street Analysts and shareholder demands.

Unlike stocks, currency charts do not spend much time in trading ranges and have the tendency to develop strong trends. Furthermore, Forex with its 4 Mayor currencies is easier to analyze than tens of thousands of stocks.

(Mayor currencies are: USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF)

The complimentary FREE live charting software, with the ultimate cutting edge technology provided by http://www.fenixcapitalmanagement.com/ , will be absolutely sufficient for you to analyze and watch any one currency pair. Understanding just a few basic points about the technical analysis of currency chart can lead to increased profit potential.

Pricing – Price reflects the perceptions and action taken by the market participants. It is the dealing between buyers and sellers in the Over-The-Counter (OTC) or ìinterbankî market that creates price movement. Therefore, all fundamental factors are quickly discounted in price. By studying the price charts, you are indirectly seeing the fundamental and market psychology all at once , after all the market is fed by two emotions – Greed and Fear ñ and once you understand that, then you begin to understand the psychology of the market and how it relates to the chart patterns.

Data Window Chart ñ FCM and most online charting stations, when you click on a price bar or candlestick, it will display a small box of data usually called a display window which will contain the following items:

H = Highest Price
L = Lowest Price
O = Opening Price
C = Close Price (or Last Price)

The most common types of price bars, used in FOREX trading, are the Bar Chart and the Candlestick chart:

Bars Charts –

Price bars are a linear representation (a line) of a period of time. This enables the viewer to see a graphic representation summarizing the activity of a specific time frame. As an example, I use 10 minutes, 60 minutes and daily time interval for my systems. Each bar has similar characteristics and tells the viewer several important pieces of information.

First, the highest point of the bar represents the highest price that was achieved during that time period. The lowest point of the bar represents the lowest price during the same period. Regular bars display a small dot on the left side of the bar which represents the opening price of the period and the small dot on the right side represents the closing price of the period.

Candlesticks – Japanese Candlesticks, or simply Candlesticks as they are now known, are used to represent the same information as Price bars. The only difference is that the difference between the open and close form the body of a box which is displayed with a color inside. A red color means that the close was lower than the open, and the blue color represents that the close was higher than the open.

If the box has a line going up from the box it represents the high and is called the wick. If the box has a line going down from the box, it represents the low and is called the tail.

Many interpretations can be made from these “candlesticks” and many books have been written on the art of interpreting these bars.

Chart Intervals & Time Frames:

A chart Time Scale & Period, or time frame, basically refers to the duration of time that passes between the OPEN and the CLOSE of a bar or candlestick.

For instance, with your broker software, you will be able to view a currency pair, in a 1-hour time frame over a 2-day period, 5-day period, 10-day period, 20-day period and 30- day period.

Most of the short-term time intervals (5-min and 1-min charts) are used for entry and exit points and the longer- term time intervals (1-hour and daily charts) are used to see where the general trend is.